And so another awards season comes to a close. This has been arguably one of the most interesting Oscar seasons in recent years. Going into tonight’s ceremony, there are still several races that are too close for predictors to call. It will be nice to have a little mystery during the ceremony, since it’s normally just a night full of honoring the same people that have been awarded for the past five months. Only a handful of accountants know the results now, so let’s take this chance for some last-ditch predictions.
Come back later tonight if you want to join me for the liveblog. The show starts at 7:30 CST.
Nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Probably Argo, but it could very well be Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty. It was the most all-around solid film of the nominees and it’s a real shame it got torpedoed so early on in the race.
Nominees: Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Will Win: This is another race that is totally wide open. My gut is going with Lee, though.
Should Win: Ben Affleck or Kathryn Bigelow, but the Academy was stupid and didn’t nominate either of them.
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)
Will Win: Day-Lewis. One of the few solid locks of the night.
Should Win: Honestly, my favorite performance this year was John Hawkes in The Sessions. It’s a travesty he wasn’t nominated.
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Will Win: It will likely be the phenomenal Lawrence, though it is definitely within the realm of possibility for Riva to pull an upset.
Should Win: Lawrence. She was completely amazing and probably the best performer in a ridiculously talented ensemble.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Will Win: It’s going to come down to Jones and De Niro. Jones has the Screen Actors Guild Award in this category, but a lot of people feel this is De Niro’s best work in years. I’m calling a De Niro upset here.
Should Win: Of the ones nominated (minus The Master, which I have not yet seen), my favorite was probably Waltz in Django.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Will Win: Hathaway. She is one of the absolute sure things tonight.
Should Win: Hathaway. Watch her performance of “I Dreamed a Dream” and you will understand.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Wreck-It Ralph
Will Win: Brave, though Ralph has a real shot as well
Should Win: I absolutely adored Ralph.
Nominees: Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Will Win: I think it will go to Life of Pi, but if Lincoln starts picking up the technical awards, it will probably end up with the Best Picture award as well.
Should Win: Life of Pi. It was absolutely gorgeous.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman
Will Win: I’m feeling Les Mis in this category, but Anna Karenina has a real shot here, too.
Should Win: Les Mis.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: 5 Broken Cameras, The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, Searching for Sugar Man
Will Win: It’ll probably be Sugar Man.
Should Win: I haven’t seen any of the nominees, but Invisible War is about a topic near to my heart. I’m kind of pulling for that one.
Best Film Editing
Nominees: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Whichever film wins this will probably end up with the Best Picture award. I’m leaning towards Argo here.
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty. So much love for that film.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Amour (Austria), Kon-Tiki (Norway), No (Chile), A Royal Affair (Denmark), War Witch (Canada)
Will Win: This will likely go to Amour, but Kon-Tiki or A Royal Affair could also pull an upset.
Should Win: I’ve only seen Amour and I didn’t love it. I love Denmark, so I’m rooting for A Royal Affair.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Nominees: Hitchcock, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables
Will Win: This is the first year that hairstyling has been included in this category, so I think Les Mis is going to win here. The other two have great make-up, but nothing big with the hairstyling.
Should Win: Les Mis.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Anna Karenina, Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Will Win: Lincoln. It’s been a while since John Williams got an Oscar.
Should Win: Lincoln. It’s John freaking Williams.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Before My Time” (Chasing Ice), “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” (Ted), “Pi’s Lullaby” (Life of Pi), “Skyfall” (Skyfall), “Suddenly” (Les Miserables)
Will Win: Skyfall. Another solid lock for the night.
Should Win: Skyfall. It’s freaking Adele.
Best Production Design
Nominees: Anna Karenina, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln
Will win: Les Miserables.
Should win: Les Mis.
Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Life of Pi. Sound editing was absolutely integral for a solid half of the film, since there wasn’t any dialogue.
Should Win: Life of Pi
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Will Win: Musicals do great in this category, so it will likely be Les Mis.
Should Win: Les Mis. By having the actors perform live for the camera instead of in a studio and looping it in, the sound mixers did so amazing.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Life of Pi, Marvel’s The Avengers, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Life of Pi
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: I think Tarantino is going to win here for Django, but Wes Anderson could also get it for Moonrise.
Should Win: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Argo